China will likely have its own Mythos-like model around February 2027

A forecast built on chip counts, compute budgets, and Malaysian data centers.

Jul 3 • Hamish Low

18

6

June 2026

Is querying a model an export now? And what that means for remote access controls

The US Commerce letter to Anthropic carries implications for how BIS uses its authorities and could set a new precedent for how the Bureau thinks about…

Jun 19 • Cassia King

6

1

3

A forecast of Chinese DUV and EUV photolithography progress

What we can and can’t learn from ASML

Jun 18 • Hamish Low

36

2

9

Where China’s AI chip supply chain stands in 2026

China’s domestic ecosystem is improving, but it remains constrained by several hard bottlenecks, especially in photolithography equipment and memory…

Jun 2 • Veronika Blablova and Erich Grunewald

22

5

May 2026

How good is China at export controls?

China’s export control agency has a fraction of BIS's staff, but makes up for it through politically centralized rulemaking and well-integrated…

May 24 • Maxwell K. Roberts

6

1

How much US compute is China renting from the cloud?

China is restricted from purchasing advanced US chips, but it can rent liberally from the cloud. Even a modest share of US cloud compute could boost…

May 22 • Cassia King

8

1

How much should we worry about secretly loyal AIs?

Defenders have structural advantages but there’s work to be done.

May 20 • Dave Banerjee

7

1

2

How banned AI chips end up in China

AI chips and servers reach China through distribution chains in which each seller vets only its direct customers, and no one is on the hook for what…

May 15 • Erich Grunewald

12

4

April 2026

Making through-silicon vias is not a bottleneck for China's HBM production

Firms like ACM Research are making the deposition machines China needs, though they may suffer from worse yields.

Apr 22 • Hamish Low

9

5

March 2026

BIS should use AI to control AI chips

For BIS to truly stamp out smuggling, it needs to take advantage of the AI capabilities it’s trying to control.

Mar 30 • Maxwell K. Roberts

7

3

Securing AI infrastructure to prevent backdoors and sabotage

There are many open problems in preserving the integrity of model weights, training data, and algorithms.

Mar 26 • Dave Banerjee

14

3

A sketch of market-based export controls

Market forces could make export enforcement more adaptive, efficient, and predictable.

Mar 20 • Onni Aarne

6

1