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BIS should use AI to control AI chips
For BIS to truly stamp out smuggling, it needs to take advantage of the AI capabilities it’s trying to control.
Mar 30
•
Maxwell K. Roberts
6
3
Securing AI infrastructure to prevent backdoors and sabotage
There are many open problems in preserving the integrity of model weights, training data, and algorithms.
Mar 26
•
Dave Banerjee
13
3
A sketch of market-based export controls
Market forces could make export enforcement more adaptive, efficient, and predictable.
Mar 20
•
Onni Aarne
5
1
China is making strides in etching machines for memory
AMEC’s current etching machines can’t support China’s high-bandwidth memory efforts, but its next flagship likely can.
Mar 17
•
Hamish Low
10
3
February 2026
BIS should build a lean, mean, data-driven enforcement machine
BIS enforcement relies on decades-old software systems and fragmented, patchwork databases. Fixing that could massively improve its ability to catch…
Feb 27
•
Maxwell K. Roberts
11
4
Endgames for export controls
Export controls on AI chips could lead to enduring dominance.
Feb 18
•
Onni Aarne
7
2
Where will China get its compute in 2026?
Over half of the compute will likely be legally imported NVIDIA H200s, but other sources—domestic production, proxy fabrication, and smuggling—matter…
Feb 13
•
Erich Grunewald
12
2
4
Why securing AI model weights isn’t enough
AI will soon be integrated into everything. We should make sure it hasn’t been compromised.
Feb 9
•
Dave Banerjee
20
2
3
January 2026
BIS is getting more funding—here's how to spend it
BIS is getting a significant funding boost, but not everything it wanted. It should prioritize force multipliers and unconventional hiring authorities.
Jan 30
•
Maxwell K. Roberts
7
2
The case for paying whistleblowers to report on export violations
A bipartisan, bicameral bill would apply the SEC’s successful whistleblower incentive model to export enforcement
Jan 28
•
Erich Grunewald
12
1
For chip exports, quantity is at least as important as quality
Instead of micromanaging chip quality thresholds, the US should simply minimize the quantity of AI chip exports to China
Jan 27
•
Onni Aarne
9
1
This is The Substrate
A newsletter about possibly the most important resource of our time: compute
Jan 27
•
Erich Grunewald
and
Onni Aarne
8
1
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