Over half of the compute will likely be legally imported NVIDIA H200s, but other sources—domestic production, proxy fabrication, and smuggling—matter too, as does remote access.
Useful analysis. Without diving into the rest, my prediction is significantly lower on the US H200 exports. I think lower than 500k H200s in calendar year 2026. US bureaucracy will throw a lot of sand in the gears, and Nvidia can't meet the rules Commerce set out in January. The FT report today (https://www.ft.com/content/47f1cf56-209f-46fb-a437-f769b9ccb2cb) suggests that Nvidia is also concluding it's unlikely to ship large numbers to China any time soon.
Useful analysis. Without diving into the rest, my prediction is significantly lower on the US H200 exports. I think lower than 500k H200s in calendar year 2026. US bureaucracy will throw a lot of sand in the gears, and Nvidia can't meet the rules Commerce set out in January. The FT report today (https://www.ft.com/content/47f1cf56-209f-46fb-a437-f769b9ccb2cb) suggests that Nvidia is also concluding it's unlikely to ship large numbers to China any time soon.
Yeah, that's reasonable. I think I'd also lower the forecast a bit after the FT report.